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The Power of Speculation

I love speculation. It let’s me create all kinds of stories, to create “facts” where none exist. I’m not the only one – archaeologists, news channels, political commentators, gamblers, investors, and real estate agents, to name only a few, love speculation, too.

Do we know anything for sure about the ancient past? Some ancient texts exist to give a small peek of what may have gone on, but everything else is made up of educated guesses or speculation. I remember watching a show on Egyptian mummies being entombed with various perfumes to help with their “passage to the other side”. Couldn’t it have been as simple as masking the smell? Even the expertly mummified tend to smell bad (or so I’m told), so doesn’t it make sense that the bodies were entombed with perfumes? And while we’re in Egypt, what about those pyramids? Where’d they come from? Any answer is mostly speculation – anyone that says different is blowing smoke.

And so we come to the gaming industry.

Talk about an industry ripe for speculation! It’s a rare thing to open a gaming magazine and get the full story on anything, but it happened recently when Bill Roper, one of Blizzard’s founders, left Blizzard due to the uncertainty surrounding Vivendi. There wasn’t much left to the imagination though because he issued a press release stating why he left. Vivendi responded in turn with a “we wish him well” press release but not confirming anything in relation to why Roper left. Speculators were disappointed, fortunately, despite that one example, the industry does its best to fuel speculation.

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Take for example the cancellation of Full Throttle II: Hell on Wheels. Here’s a project that had many eyes on it and LucasArts cancelled it with less than two-dozen words: "We do not want to disappoint the many fans of Full Throttle and hope everyone can understand how committed we are to delivering the best quality gaming experience that we possibly can.” On top of that, the words didn’t mean anything. It was a

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weak “explanation” by anyone’s definition. For speculators in the gaming industry this is like throwing a Molotov cocktail at a tree in a tinder dry forest. Everyone with fourth or five-hand information leapt out of the woodwork (and onto the Forums) with their own half-baked theory as to what happened behind closed doors to precipitate the cancellation. And it never winds up as a good thing for the company involved. In this case not many have jumped to LucasArts’ defense, most postings lamented the many “What ifs…?” and there were a few postings from “industry insiders” saying the game sucked and Full Throttle II’s cancellation was a blessing in disguise. (Further research shows that most of these “insiders” have a general beef with LucasArts.) Will we ever get the full story or will we forever be piecing together 2^nd and 3^rd hand information to come up with an incomplete picture? Probably.

Half-Life 2 is another target of speculation. First it was speculation on whether there was even a Half-Life 2 in development. Now it’s speculation whether it will hit the late September ship date. There was word that it wasn’t going to hit the date when Vivendi PR stepped in to reassure everyone with – I’m paraphrasing – “Valve is working toward a late September ship date.” Hold the phone! Stop the presses! Wait a minute… that doesn’t actually tell us anything. Let the speculation continue! In this case it works in Vivendi/Valve’s favor because it keeps Half-Life 2 in the gaming headlines.

Speculation and rumors at most times are incorrect. Just ask John Romero, one of the minds behind Doom, Quake, and the much maligned Daikatana, who has been “reported” dead at least twice! (How’d you like to open your email to find condolences to loved ones regarding your death?)

Sometimes a breeze of truth comes through, like the talk of Microsoft buying up Rare. Rumors ran rampant for months before the deal but nothing official ever emerged from Nintendo, Rare, or Microsoft. Why didn’t Microsoft just drop trou and show us what they were going to do? Another question up for speculation!

The best thing about speculation is that anyone can do it. No matter the claim, however outlandish or insane, all it takes is a couple of people to repeat the speculation and suddenly you have a rumor that morphs into the “truth.” There has been speculation on a number of games – some published, some unpublished – that never caught on for whatever reason, even though some of them sound absolutely credible. What follows is a brief list of speculatory entries that appeared on message boards around the web – I can’t take ownership of these entries, these are simply examples found on the web. (You have to look hard for some of them.)

#1. If BMX XXX had been a hit, Acclaim had plans to produce Hardcore XXX – the first multiplatform hardcore porn title. It would have starred a raft of porn’s top “talent” and featured a storyline that revolved around reclaiming a magic dildo. Gameplay boiled down to… well, I won’t go into that – this is a family site after all.

#2. Duke Nukem Forever hasn’t shipped because the developer, 3D Realms, can’t stop modeling the strippers.

#3. Tim Schafer left LucasArts to found Double Fine Productions after management wanted him to produce a Jar-Jar Binks adventure title.

#4. Nintendo’s next project – officially unannounced – is an Xbox-seeking peripheral for the GameBoy Advance. The cartridge acts like a radar detector and when the unit is within 50 feet of the target you press the “A” button and a powerful (but concentrated) beam is emitted from the connectivity jack and fries the Xbox circuit for the ROM controller. This renders the Xbox unit useless. Currently, the theory is that the unit will never be “officially” released for two reasons. One, Microsoft is co-funding the project (so they can charge big money to repair the units). Two, the disabling beam affects pacemakers “adversely” according to leaked reports. This does not mean it will never be released though. There are indications that Nintendo fanboys will be covertly equipped with the units.

#5. Playstation 3 is actually a great big lie. Sony plans to skip an entire generation by going right to Playstation 4 that will feature 12 controller bays, holographic projection and enough processing power to control electrical grids for areas up to 40,000 square miles. The electrical outage experienced through a large swath of western North America (August 14, 2003) is reported to be an early test of this capability.

#6. Resident Evil 4 will be the last Resident Evil (RE) game produced. RE Online will be canned. According to leaked memos, producers at Capcom think that RE formula has grown stale and plan to put the zombies on ice. At least for a few years.

#7. E3 2004 will be open to the general public – no registration required – on the last day of the show. Apparently, the IDSA—sorry, the ESA, was on the receiving end of too many digs at their quoted “62,000 industry professionals” for the results of E3 2003.

And that’s just a sampling of the kind of speculation and rumor that permeates gaming.

So what’s my point about all this? Basically, speculation is generally hurtful but the very companies (and occasionally, individuals) involved bring on 95% of it. However hurtful, it’s damn hard not to speculate on subjects and topics that little is known about. If archaeologists and political commentators can speculate, why can’t gamers? Until publishers and developers come clean on stories – give reasons for cancellations, etc. – they’ll forever be put through the shredder as people throw out theories and see what sticks.

- Omni

(August 24, 2003)


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